Market Insight for September 25

New single-family home sales in the GTA jumped to 692 in August, more than triple the 215 sales recorded during the same month last year. Sales were also 47 per cent above the 10-year average, according to Altus Group data prepared for the building industry. Condo sales, however, continue to sit well below their long-term average.

The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) says Ontario’s HST rebate program is playing a major role in the increase, helping offset some of the uncertainty created by the U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade tensions.

“The tariffs and the global uncertainty and the trade wars have had a rather chilling effect on the market, so the HST rebate has countered that,” said Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer at BILD.

Sherwood also said there is “no chance” the latest round of tariffs will push development costs high enough to wipe out the benefit of the HST rebate.

The one-year HST rebate on new homes was introduced as a boost for the new home industry, which has been dealing with a significant price gap between new and resale homes as well as a growing supply backlog. Since the federal and provincial governments introduced the rebate in April, single-family home sales have picked up, although the condo market continues to struggle.

With August’s increase, total single-family home sales for 2026 have reached 5,550. That is more than double last year’s record low and puts sales roughly in line with the 10-year average.

The condo market is telling a different story. There were 215 condo sales in the GTA in August, including stacked townhouses and units in low- mid- and high-rise buildings. While that was double the number sold in August 2025, sales were still 78 per cent below the 10-year average. During the pandemic, condo sales reached an August peak in 2021 with 3,149 units sold during the month.

The benchmark price for a new single-family home, which excludes unusually high or low sales, was $1.25 million. That was down 14.6 per cent from a year earlier.

The benchmark price for a new condominium apartment was $1.04 million, an increase of 1.3 per cent year-over-year.

“We’re starting to see that in the GTA, townhomes are making up a large share of the single-family homes that are moving in comparison to the traditional historical pattern,” he said.

He added that builders are pricing townhomes in a way that allows buyers to take greater advantage of the HST rebate while also offering the type of housing buyers are looking for.

“I think with all of that combined, it’s all coming together to provide the momentum to buy,” Sherwood said.

The condo market has not benefited from the HST rebate to the same extent as the single-family market. Sherwood said it is more difficult for condo projects to qualify, particularly because of rules surrounding when developments must start and finish.

Despite the recent improvement in sales, the GTA still has a considerable amount of new home inventory. Based on current supply and demand, it would take 38.5 months to sell all housing types currently on the market. A balanced market would normally have about nine to 12 months of inventory.

The prices reported for both single-family homes and condos are gross prices, meaning they do not include the HST rebate. BILD said it uses gross prices so that the numbers can be compared directly with previous years.

After five consecutive months of rising sales for low-rise new homes, Sherwood said the results suggest the HST rebate is having an impact.

The building and renovation industry is a significant part of the regional economy. BILD says it supports 256,000 jobs in the region and represents $39.3 billion in investment value.

Sherwood also pointed out that residential homebuilding is largely a domestic industry, with 100 per cent of its labour coming from Canada and the vast majority of the materials and other inputs being supplied by Canadian companies.