Market Insight for July 10

The GTA housing market is improving, but buyers still have the edge.

June’s housing figures for the Greater Toronto Area offer some encouraging signs, and it’s easy to frame them as evidence that the market is recovering. Sales increased, fewer new properties came onto the market, and active listings were lower than they were a year ago.

Even so, the broader picture hasn’t changed dramatically. Home prices remain lower than last year, affordability continues to challenge many households, and buyers who have been willing to wait have generally benefited from doing so.

According to TRREB, there were 6,770 home sales across the GTA in June 2026, an increase of 9.4 per cent compared with June 2025. New listings declined 12.9 per cent to 17,282, while active listings fell to 27,329, down from 31,585 one year earlier.

The average selling price reached $1,058,658, which was still 3.9 per cent below June 2025 levels. TRREB’s MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark declined 5.4 per cent year over year. While seasonally adjusted figures showed modest improvement from the previous month, annual price comparisons remain in negative territory.

In other words, the market is healthier than it was earlier this year but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s strong. Activity has improved from historically subdued levels, yet conditions remain well below the pace seen during the boom years. A more balanced market may not generate flashy headlines, but it gives buyers more choice, more negotiating power and more time to make informed decisions.

One of the biggest obstacles remains affordability. Higher borrowing costs continue to limit what many buyers can afford. That’s why stronger sales don’t automatically translate into stronger pricing power for sellers. Increased transactions may reflect improving confidence, but they can just as easily indicate that sellers have adjusted their expectations and accepted lower prices.

That has largely been the story since 2022. Buyers who resisted the urge to rush into the market have generally been rewarded. Prices have moderated, the condominium sector has remained under pressure, more sellers have become realistic, and unsold listings have accumulated. The fear of missing out has largely been replaced by concerns about paying too much.

While that shift may be uncomfortable for an industry built around urgency, it represents a healthier and more balanced marketplace.

For buyers, a buyers’ market isn’t bad news. It provides greater negotiating power, more choice, additional time for due diligence, and the ability to walk away when a deal doesn’t make sense. It also creates conditions that are more measured and rational than the frenzied markets experienced just a few years ago.

That aligns with what many Canadians appear to want. A recent Financial Post report found that approximately 55 per cent of Canadians would still like home prices to decline further, despite the correction already seen from peak values. Given how many prospective buyers have struggled with affordability, it’s understandable that softer prices are viewed by many as a necessary step toward restoring accessibility.

Challenges remain. Financing costs are still elevated, interest rate markets aren’t signalling a return to ultra-cheap borrowing, economic growth remains fragile, consumer confidence is subdued, and trade concerns, including renewed uncertainty surrounding CUSMA have resurfaced. Meanwhile, discussions about condo bailouts in markets such as Vancouver highlight the financial strain affecting parts of Canada’s housing sector.

None of this suggests the GTA housing market is headed for a collapse. However, it does indicate that any sustained price recovery still faces meaningful headwinds. Buyers will likely need stronger income growth, lower borrowing costs, and greater confidence in the economy before prices begin climbing in a meaningful way. For now, many still see value in waiting.

During June, detached homes accounted for 3,256 sales with an average selling price of approximately $1.36 million. Semi-detached homes recorded 617 sales at roughly $1.04 million, while townhouses saw 1,082 sales averaging about $845,000. Condominium apartments generated 1,714 sales at an average price of approximately $631,000.

The condominium sector continues to sit at the centre of many of today’s market challenges. Investor expectations, new project completions, resale inventory, rental assumptions, carrying costs, and buyer confidence are all colliding in this segment. In many cases, sellers are discovering that the prices buyers are willing to pay simply don’t match expectations formed during the boom years.

Market conditions will also vary depending on property type and location. Some neighbourhoods will experience improving demand while others continue to struggle. Some listings will attract strong interest, while others remain unsold for extended periods.

The best strategy isn’t to wait indefinitely, nor is it to jump into the market simply because sales improved in one month. Focus on recent comparable sales rather than asking prices. Negotiate aggressively when listings have lingered on the market. Move quickly when a property is already priced appropriately.

Today’s buyers are very different from those who dominated the market in 2021. They’re more informed, more cautious, and far less willing to overpay. They’ve witnessed price declines, investor losses, and a market where patience has consistently produced better opportunities.

Sellers who have adjusted to today’s financing realities are finding buyers. Those still pricing their homes based on yesterday’s market are often waiting much longer to sell. June’s figures suggest realistic sellers have a better chance of completing a transaction.

Overall, the buyers’ market remains intact. Sales improved, new listings declined, and active inventory was lower than a year ago. Yet prices continued to trail last year’s levels, condominium weakness persisted, and borrowing costs remained elevated.

Rather than declaring that a full recovery has arrived, the more accurate conclusion is that the GTA buyers’ market continues to move forward at a measured pace and for many buyers, that’s still working in their favour.