Market Insight for Sept 5

Home prices across the Greater Toronto Area stayed under pressure in August as the supply of new listings continued to outpace sales, though the region’s real estate board noted that a possible interest rate cut later this month could help spark a fresh round of market activity.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported that the average selling price slipped 5.2 per cent year-over-year in August to $1.02 million.

Since the February 2022 peak, the average price across all property categories in the GTA has fallen by more than 23 per cent.

For a household earning the average GTA income, keeping up with the mortgage payments tied to an average-priced property remains difficult. This holds true despite lower borrowing costs and home values compared with last year.

The board said sales rose 2.3 per cent in August from the same month a year earlier, with 5,211 transactions taking place.

Even as sales climbed compared with August 2024, supply rose by more than nine per cent, pulling the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 37 per cent. A level below 40 per cent typically signals a buyer’s market, where purchasers have greater options and more leverage on price.

“Relative to last year, we’ve observed a slight pickup in summer home sales,” said TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule in a news release.

With the broader economy slowing and inflation contained, further Bank of Canada rate cuts could cushion the effect of tariffs. More affordability would likely encourage stronger sales and deliver broader economic benefits.

The Bank of Canada left its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive time in its July 30 announcement, while noting that additional reductions could be appropriate as U.S. tariffs remain in place.

The policy rate continues to sit at 2.75 per cent ahead of the Sept. 17 decision. Although some buyers are waiting for a rate cut, affordability depends on a range of factors beyond just interest rates.

New listings climbed 9.4 per cent year-over-year in August to 14,038, while active listings jumped 22.4 per cent to 27,495 properties on the market.

“Although the summer often tends to be slower in real estate, this year has been different, as consumer sentiment has started to improve. Still, it has taken time for buyers and sellers to come together on pricing.

Within the City of Toronto, there were 1,779 transactions last month, a 3.5 per cent increase from August 2024. Across the rest of the GTA, sales were up 1.7 per cent to 3,432.

Looking across housing types, every category except condos posted higher sales versus a year earlier.

Detached properties recorded the biggest sales gain in the GTA, rising 5.9 per cent, followed by semi-detached homes with a 2.6 per cent uptick and townhomes with a 2.4 per cent increase. Condo sales, however, were down 4.9 per cent from August 2024.

In Toronto, detached home prices saw the steepest drop at 10 per cent year-over- year, followed by semi-detached at six per cent and condos at two per cent.

Townhomes bucked the trend with a one per cent price increase.

It’s hard to pinpoint why detached homes experienced the sharpest price correction, but the wide range of properties—from entry-level houses to high-end luxury homes—often leads to more volatility in that segment.”

“On the sales side, semi-detached homes posted the largest year-over-year increase at nearly 18 per cent, given their relative affordability for families their role as a more accessible entry point for first-time buyers.”