Market Insight for August 22

Canadian home sales are on an upward trend – making it four straight months of increased home sales.

The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows the number of home sales in Canada climbed 3.8% in July compared to June.

According to CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart, “that’s definitely a trend.”

“With each passing month, it’s becoming clearer that the rebound we’ve been predicting over the past year wasn’t cancelled, just pushed back a little—and now it’s happening,” Cathcart explained in this month’s CREA Housing Market Report.

Why are Canadian home sales increasing now?

In short, the tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and the uncertainty surrounding them cast a shadow over Canada earlier in the spring. This put the brakes on a bustling spring market CREA had originally forecasted at the start of the year.

Now, as fall approaches, that pent-up demand is surfacing. Home sales have climbed a total of 11.2% since March, boosted by last month’s increase.

The timing couldn’t be better, with September often sparking real estate activity as Canadians settle back from summer vacations. As the report notes, fall typically brings a surge of new listings, and if buyers are waiting on the sidelines, October and November could see even stronger sales numbers. That’s exactly how things played out last year.

Is it a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market?

The sales-to-new listings ratio is currently at 52% (readings roughly between 45% and 65% are generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

The ratio is falling, so we’re moving very rapidly to the direction of a sellers’ market again. If we keep this up, we could officially be in a national sellers’ market by January.

Are Canadian home prices increasing yet?

All real estate markets are local, so you’ll see different scenarios in different provinces. For instance, in Quebec and the East Coast, prices have been rising for almost three years almost everywhere. The same goes for the Prairies, except for Calgary, which is a more expensive market.

Prices are falling in the Lower Mainland area of British Columbia, but in Victoria and the interior of the province you may see prices rising.

Ontario is a mixed bag, but as Cathcart points out in the report, “In general, as we go forward… there will be a lot less places where prices are falling.”

The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $672,784 in July 2025.