Market Update for October 7

A 20-year low in new home listings last month is buying Toronto area home prices, which in September, rose slightly month-over-month to $1.09 million. It was the second consecutive monthly price increase, but on a year-over-year basis, the average house and condo price dipped 4.3 percent.

The 11,237 homes that hit the market last month was the lowest number for September since 2002, said the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) on Wednesday. Even amid concerns about higher interest rates and inflation, that lack of supply could be supporting a higher average selling price, said real estate board officials.

“With new listings down quite substantially year-over-year and well-below historic norms, some home buyers are quite possibly experiencing tighter market conditions in some GTA neighbourhoods,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst.

In central Toronto, you’re seeing neighbourhoods that have always been in very high demand having low levels of inventory. In those areas, there’s greater competition across all price points.

The biggest price declines continue to be in detached houses that sold for an average of about $1.37 million in September — 10.2 percent lower than at the same time last year. September’s average price for all types of housing was $1,086,762, or $247,331 below the February peak of about $1.33 million.

Condo prices, meanwhile, rose 3.2 per cent year-over-year in the GTA to $730,818, and in the City of Toronto, they rose 3.3% from a year ago to $769,058.

Home sales plunged 44.1 per cent year over year in September to 5,038, reflecting a dramatically different and more uncertain market than the one that existed a year ago. Among the biggest changes are mortgage rates, which are now in the four to five percent range compared to less than 1.5 percent at their lowest in 2021.

The historically low level of September listings is evident in both the condo and single-family home sides of the real estate market.

Real estate continues to appeal to some investors who don’t have a high level of comfort with the stock market and Toronto’s climbing rents are also a positive for investors. Toronto condo rents hit a record high in August of $2,806, according to a recent report from market research firm Urbanation. That’s a 19.5 percent annual increase, the equivalent of $458 a month on average.

October generally represents the peak of the fall market, so it will be important to see where price trends head over the next month, said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.