Market Update for October 1st

Canadians are changing provinces at the fastest rate since the 90’s real estate bubble. Canadians haven’t fled their province in such a large volume in over three decades. Interprovincial migration reached 123,500 people in Q2 2021. This is an increase of 55.1% from the previous quarter, and the largest migration since Q3 1991. That was smack in the middle of the last affordability crisis, and the end of the early 1990s real estate bubble. Migration and quality of life improvements tend to go hand in hand.

Ontario was by far the biggest loser, with many more people leaving than arriving. Net migration was -11,857 people in Q2 2021. It was the largest outflow for the province since the early 1980s. Other provinces also saw substantial outflows, but not nearly as big as Ontario. Big losses were seen in Alberta (-5,447), Manitoba (-3,513), and Saskatchewan (-3,362). Since it’s interprovincial migration, one province’s loss is another’s gain. British Columbia was the biggest winner, with net migration reaching 15,300 people in Q2 2021. Both Nova Scotia (4,700), and New Brunswick (2,100) also saw substantial gains. Life on the coasts must be appealing. The other provinces made minor increases, PEI (869), Newfoundland (806), and Quebec (626).

This migration reveals a lot about the province from the perspective of the people that live there. Provinces with big gains strike the right balance of local retention and attractiveness. Affordability was a major factor for people looking to move. These provinces are winning people over with a better quality of life.

Even though Ontario lost a number of people this year, immigration to Canada’s largest province, Ontario, welcomed nearly 83,000 newcomers in 2020. Ontario’s share of all immigration to Canada remained unchanged compared to 2019, with the province welcoming 45 per cent of the country’s newcomers. In 2019, 62% of immigrants indicated they would settle in Ontario. A variety of factors suggest that Ontario should see a significant recovery in its permanent residence status of new comers this year.